State Of The Market + Update Portfolio
10x Club Portfolio is (still) printing green and we're back with new gems!
First off, I’m very sorry for the very long break between updates. Mostly this has to do with my current work where I’m setting up a business myself and it has consumed a lot of time. To compensate, I will turn off billing from March 8th, 2023 till May 1st, 2023. For all paid subscribers this means you will not get billed during this period, for unpaid subscribers this means you have until next Wednesday March 8th to subscribe for the paid newsletter or you will will NOT be able to join the paid section of 10x Club until May 8th, 2023. In short here’s what the paid section offers and why it’s paid:
10x Club Portfolio: is a selection of projects that I made based on years of fundamental research of the crypto market. This is a long term portfolio to give you insight which projects I invest in and why. The reason this portfolio is not open to the public is because 1) I don’t like to shill projects and 2) by being behind a paywall we maintain our competitive advantage to the rest of the market.
Market insight and data: is another advantage for paid subscribers. Having a good selection of projects is just half of the work, deploying your capital at the right moment is the other half. That’s why I give regular updates on the state of the market and called the bottom after the FTX crash. Next to that, we also deployed capital at the June lows which was in hindsight the bottom for a few alt coins. Remember, none of what I say in my newsletter is financial advice and one can never know anything for certain in the market - yet, I share what I do and give you all the reasons why so you have all the data to make your OWN decisions.
For reference, you can check my earlier posts here or check my analysis on my Tradingview account where I gave my followers a clear warning that the bottom was about to be in
on 22 November 2023.
I do try to give free subscribers a fair share of value but there’s much less commitment in this relationship from both sides. If you did not opt for my 30% “Crypto Bottom Discount” (Yes, that was literally what it was called) back in December, which would have given you access for around 70 bucks a year and you would have made that all back in a few weeks time, then you might know comprehend the value in hindsight. In essence, I’m here to help people not get caught in the madness of this market, which I know from own experience can be detrimental. I’m here to help you and that’s it, there’s no catch here - just ask others who did sign by commenting on my Twitter, so you can find out yourself. So, here’s your LAST CHANCE TO SIGN UP because I might not accept new entries after May 8th, simply because I don’t want anyone to FOMO into a market when it’s too late. Thus, the market will decide whether sign ups will be open again after May 8th. Sign up below and get 10% discount:
Join the club:
Let’s see where we stand though, who bought a bag back in Nov / Dec of 2022?
State Of The Market
So here’s an update on the state of the market. The most important news is around Silvergate Bank - a bank that does most of volume in on- and off ramping Fiat currencies to crypto and vice versa. In short, it looks like this bank is bankrupt due to mismanagement - a late capitulator. In this case, one man’s dead is the other man’s bread - new banks or financial service providers will come forward to fill the gap.
Secondly, there’s the SEC, the Securities and Exchange Commission has failed to regulate the crypto industry for many years and suddenly comes forward with a “crackdown”. Now, even though this makes sense in the aftermath of FTX, Luna and many more disasters of the past year(s), its firstly too late and secondly fueled by self interest. The SEC is in a big fight with the CTFC, as they both want a piece of the pie in crypto and both want to be the “boss” in the crypto industry. The CFTC has had the leading hand in a market deemed with utility coins that were not viewed as securities and now the SEC likes to change that around. Simple example is how the CFTC is discussing DeFi during their next meeting.
In essence it’s all a bit of show. If they were serious about regulating the space, the aftermath of the 2017 bubble was THE moment to do so. Now we’re in a whole new paradigm, with CBDC’s being rushed to the table to tackle the dire macro financial conditions. The banks have seen what they miss out on and the SEC is stepping in for them. Silvergate is just the first gap to fill, next up are stable coins, exchanges and initial coin offerings amongst many of the tokenised financial use cases. Long term this is only bullish for your portfolio, when institutional money steps in with clear regulations, the market will see an historic influx of capital. Yet, short term these disruption can have severe consequences for the market and it is remained to be seen how much the current market makers (of what’s left of them) can save the show.
So instead of the news, let’s look at some charts.
Bitcoin Futures (BTC1!) - 1 Week
Bitcoin is still in a place of relative strength above the bull market support band (BMSB). Bitcoin broke out above the bull market support band (as expected) during the first week of the year. We also broke the 200 EMA (white) and rallied into the 50 EMA and found resistance there. Structure wise Bitcoin set an absolute and relative higher high with a clear break of the 200 EMA. We have two gaps, one at 20K - a very important level to retest as it also resides the BMSB and has volume support from the sideways price action since June 2022. Thus, the 20K zone is the level to tap into and to hold. If we can manage to do so, I expect the gap around 28K to be filled this year and technically Bitcoin should tap 30K before we can expect significant downside. Yet, it all depends on what the stock market will do and how the crypto market makers are capable of keeping their heads above the waterline.
Total 2 / S&P 500 - 1 Week
The rest of the crypto market (without Bitcoin) has managed to mostly take back its losses post FTX collapse. The bear market thus far has almost been an exact copy of 2018 and the current situation looks very similar to the one during April 2019 with a breakout and retest of the BMSB. Mind you, this is crypto’s performance against the S&P 500 and not the dollar - thus, given the insane performance of the S&P 500, not at all that bad looking at the big picture. What I really like is how we formed a bottom at the top of the second peak of 2018, a very nice volume weighted support level. If we can hold the BSMB as support and we can breakout of the downtrend (yellow), the obvious level would be the neckline of the 2021 M formation where the all time trend 3.618 fib resides.
This newsletter will continue with the 10x Club Portfolio for paid subscribers. I wish everyone the best of luck whether they sign up or not, I hope you all take advantage of the market and market won’t take advantage of you.