What Can We Expect Next Cycle?
I’m back with a free update for everyone and I need some feedback. I’m considering switching back to an all-free newsletter but I need to know what everyone thinks of this - so please all comment you thoughts! I’m starting to work on my own crypto project »
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I know there’s a lot of people sharing a constant flood of news but I personally think it’s also very distracting and could drive you into emotional decisions. In general, I think if you diversified your portfolio into fundamentally strong projects and bought during the tail-end of the bear market (Nov 2022 till now), you should be good. Some projects will take off and do very well and some won’t make it - it’s the name of the game.
Bitcoin Cheat Sheet
Bitcoin Cheat Sheet - we're currently in the laggards phase which means that we're finding us towards the end curve of Bitcoin adoption (read more here). Therefore the success of Bitcoin is really in the hands of the big institutions now - Bitcoin has such a high market cap that it really needs institutional adoption, or better said: their money.
Even though BTC's all time trend has only been up, that is not a guarantee for the future. The concept of Bitcoin is appealing to a lot of people but also disregarded by many. It's hard to tell what happens beyond the next cycle but what's likely is that volatility will come down, diminishing returns are a fact, just look at the red curve.
My point of view is that you should make up your own mind on how to approach the next cycle, but I am definitely taking my money out - likely even before we hit $100K, if even that target gets hit - my own model points to a target between $85K and $95K with $88K a significant Fib-level. Problem with institutions is that they are very happy with a 2x and their position size is in the millions or hundreds of millions, thus they don't need a 10x. Therefore they are likely to take profit much earlier than the Bitcoin hypers will expect - harsh reality.
Ofcourse, I could be totally wrong and institutions get addicted to Bitcoin like Micheal Saylor and don’t sell, but I find that very unlikely. I also believe Saylor himself will sell a large portion of his position next cycle and it remains to be seen how and who is going to absorb this sell pressure. Only institutional market makers like BlackRock could stabilise the Bitcoin price at that point but it’s still all depending on demand. One thing is for sure, it will be very interesting!
The reason why I'm more bullish on fundamentally strong altcoins with adoption is that they represent a much more classic way of investing with teams, revenue and profit statements and/or onchain data thats shows growth or decline. Next to that, most altcoins are starting only their second cycle, which means they are still in the early adopters or early majority phase - which clearly has more upside potential. Yet(!) the problem of being early that there's no confirmation of adoption or future success - therefore being early also represents much more risk.
Click here for the Bitcoin Cheat Sheet Chart.
I hope this chart is helpful and I wish you all the best - I want you all to win!
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