Nvidia Is A Problem. (I'm in stables)

So could be earnings and the Fed!

I’ll keep it short and sweet, for me NVDA 0.00%↑ is a problem here. Why? DeepSeek looks like it might have been the final nail in the coffin and it simply looks like it has topped. 👀 Next to that we have important earnings: ASML 0.00%↑ (as somewhat an indicator for semi stocks) and big caps like MSFT 0.00%↑ AAPL 0.00%↑ IBM 0.00%↑ and INTL 0.00%↑. And if that wasn’t enough we also have FOMC and the ECB.

Quick look at Nvidia: started distribution after the stock split in June and now broke the bull market support band with volume - anything under $132 is bearish.

What is clear is that DeepSeek has triggered new possibilities in AI but these new developments have winners and losers. Currently, it looks like overspending and over investing on AI by VC’s, funds and wealth managers could become a nasty and crowdy trade. If(!) Nvidia unwinds and really drops to the downside, I can’t imagine it wouldn’t drag most of the market (and crypto) with it.

Next risk is if the earnings are worse than expected for Microsoft or Apple (the Mag 7 tech giants), we’re looking at proper move to the downside on everything. Lastly, we have the Fed on Wednesday - they are worried about stagflation - and I would not expect a dovish tone there yet. Powell needs to keep a safety cushion with Trump putting pressure for lower rates - what can he do? - use his mouth and that’s dangerous enough. ECB? I have no clue about what they’re doing…

Overall, I don’t really like the amount of risk in the market currently so I did something radical but simple: I’m sitting the week out in cash / stables. That’s just my personal opinion and could definitely backfire (if the market turns bullish) but I’m willing to sit this week out and see what happens first…