Local Top Could Be In!

Overall markets have turned bearish, time to hedge!

Hey guys,

Quick update: CPI above forecast today with FOMC coming up later today. Simple story is: markets have been pumping too hard and have dragged CPI with it. To me, it’s about time for a cool down with SPX looking for a retest towards 5000 (or lower) and Bitcoin towards $50-52K.

This is absolutely not sure, the market could also not give a shit and still go higher - do your own research and decide how you want to position yourself!

SPX (S&P500) has hit its breakout target from 2022’s bear market, I have been looking at this for a while now and it seems like that was the local top. Obviously the SPX will drag everything (BTC included) down with it - if it goes down. Targets: 5000, 4800 and 4600 in the worst case.

If we see more downside, our altcoins will get major drawdowns, therefore I have sold over 50% of my riskiest positions into USD. Overall, sentiment has been euphoric, BTC halving is coming in a week and the Fed might(!) not be done hiking.

So we have a lot of sell the news pressure AND I’m unsure how the suits will behave with the BTC ETF. Everyone is looking at Grayscale GBTC as if they are the only ones that will ever have outflows but I expect to see some outflows from others aswell. Coinbase has seen already high sell pressure on spot coming from these flows and exchanges have minted a lot of USDT to be ready to scoop big dips.

Do with this information as you wish, I’m just giving you a heads up from my side. By the way, this is not a market top, I expect crypto to continue later on but end of April and into May could(!) be bloody. We’re up on over 80% of our positions, so it doesn’t hurt to take some profit and see what happens.

Good luck frens,
BlowOffTopic

PS: I have ended billing for this newsletter, it’s free now :)